EVs: The Long View on Today's Challenges
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Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

To Put Today’s EV News in Perspective, It Helps to Take the Long View

In recent months, EV headlines have been dire. Tesla layoffs, Ford and Rivian losses, and GM stumbling raise concerns. EV opponents are crowing, claiming that EVs are inferior products, foisted on customers by inept governments before their time.

Some of that is true – EVs aren’t as good as they could be, are currently too expensive, and our charging networks are inadequate and often poorly maintained. The previously torrid growth of EVs has flatlined, as early adopter markets appears sated and masses haven’t yet seen affordable and attractive models.

But to write off electric vehicles is premature and also mistaken. EVs will eventually prove to be the superior technology, and dominate future markets. To understand why, you have to drop the short-term snapshot view, adopt a long view, and look at the evolution in technology. And you have to look at China.

The electric propulsion system is so much more efficient. U.S. DOE data shows that EVs are 4.4 times more efficient than ICE vehicles.

EV and battery technology is still young. And so is the accompanying charging infrastructure.

But the tech is inevitably going to get better; it’s still in its infancy. Battery companies are making new announcements near daily, with respect to battery chemistries, energy densities, charging speeds, and duration.

That should not be a surprise. Battery technology is all about materials science, and with human brains yoked to supercomputers, there’s no doubt as to the direction battery chemistry is going.

Example 1) China’s CATL is warranteeing a battery to take a car over one million miles.

Example 2) The Lucid Air’s battery can charge about 300 miles in 15 minutes. 

That rate of technological change is only likely going to accelerate.

Meanwhile, ICE technology doesn’t get much better - Nissan recently stated it took the industry nearly three decades to increase motor efficiency by 10%.

Focus on the trends and the underlying technology. They will lead you to the inevitable conclusion: today’s bloodletting will be forgotten as electric vehicles - once they are mature - are destined to be recognized as superior. Better efficiency, far better acceleration, and with lower centers of gravity, more fun to drive.

The question ultimately won’t be “Are EVs better?” Instead, it will be “who makes the best vehicle, which happens to be electric?” That’s where the problem lies for anybody who cares about the future of the U.S. auto industry.

In the West, we haven’t yet embraced an electric future. But China has. A report last week from Inside EVs, in which the reporter spent a week in the country, visiting Shanghai and the Beijing Auto Show commented, “the showroom floor was filled to the gills with new electrified models from every single domestic automaker. They all had something to prove, and by god, they were trying… And no matter the price point, they all had responsive, integrated vehicle interfaces that were quick, pretty, and ubiquitous.”

So, while we let our ideological rivalries get in the way of developing national economic strategies, we run the risk of letting yet another industry that we once mastered slip away. China has intentionally become a world leader in battery innovation and production. It is also the leading maker and consumer of electric vehicles. 43% of cars sold in March had a plug, a total of 743,000. The U.S.?  135,000.

We need to dispense with the short-sighted and politically driven views as to what is occurring today, understand what’s really happening here, and adopt the long view suggesting that the electric drive is inevitably a superior technology. We need to recognize this for what it is: A global competition for the future of mobility – one of the planet’s most important industries. Then we need to get behind a national policy – irrespective of which party is in power – to develop better battery tech and lower cost vehicles.

The effort to win this game and remain competitive won’t be comfortable. It won’t be easy. And mistakes will be made along the way. A leading industry is at stake, supporting millions of well-paying jobs. Do or do not, there is no try

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
EVS - TESLA & FORD STRUGGLE, WHILE HONDA AND TOYOTA EXPAND NORTH AMERICAN INVESTMENTS

1.) Amid declining sales, Tesla slashes costs and plans to cut 10% of its workforce.

2.) Ford reports steep losses on its EVs – to the tune of $1.3 bn for the quarter – as it struggles to cut costs.

3.) Hertz to sell of yet another 10,000 EVs, adding to the 20,000 it'ss already working to dispose of.

4.) Honda announces plans to develop an $11bn EV manufacturing capability in Ontario, involving JV investments from South Korea’s Posco and Japan’s Asahi Kasei.

5.) Toyota puts down an additional $1.4 bn into its Indiana EV plant for a three-row electric SUV, and battery pack assembly line using batteries from its North Carolina facility.

6.) Japan’s NGK insulators receives order for over 230 MWh of sodium-sulfur batteries from BASF’s stationary storage business unit.

7.) Texas load growth forecasts soar, increasing 40,000 MW in a single year, reflecting load growth and a change in the way it forecasts future demand. Total potential load by 2030 could be as high as 152,000 MW. For context, ERCOT record peak demand was 85,435 MW set last August.

New York Cancels Contracts With Three Offshore Wind Projects
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Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

1.) NYISO launches pioneering program to integrate DERs into wholesale electric markets, requiring minimum size of only 10 kW. Move is in line with FERC Order 2222 but far lower than FERC minimum of 100 kW aggregations.

2.) New York cancels contracts with three offshore wind projects totaling almost 4,000 MW, blaming GE for not delivering 18 MW turbine all three projects were planning to use and sticking w/14-15 MW platform. 

3.) For developers, smaller machines equals higher developments costs, including more foundations, turbines, and connecting transmission cables. Offshore wind project costs have soared 60 percent between 2021 and 2024. 

4.) Data center company Equinix will work with modular nuclear start-up Oklo to develop multiple 15-MW reactors to supply hundreds of megawatts of energy to power future data centers. Per an SEC filing for Okolo’s SPAC company AltC, Equinix has pre-paid $25 million, as described in an LOI to buy between 100 and 500 MW from Oklo.

5.) Nissan accelerating all-solid-state EV battery, kicking off a pilot production line at Yokohama plant. The company plans to include the new tech in multiple models y 2028, offering twice the range for the same volume and weight, and charging in one-third the time.

6.) GM offers bi-directional charging with Silverado pick-up that can supply home with power. GM Energy’s V2H bundle includes equipment for bi-directional flows, with stationary energy storage and solar integration to be added later in 2024. First up in GM’s vehicle line-up will be the 2024 Chevrolet Silverado, with additional Ultium-based EVs added through 2026.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
The Biden Administration OK’s Two Large Avangrid Offshore Wind Projects
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Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

1.) The Indiana Department of Transportation, Purdue University, and Cummins will install wireless charging technology on a quarter mile state highway in a pilot project.

2.) The Biden administration OK’s two large Avangrid offshore wind projects off Massachusetts totaling 1,871 MW.

3.) CAISO eyes $6.1 bn of new transmission projects in PG&E service territory, with $4.6 billion earmarked to connect 4,700 MW of offshore wind and $1.5 bn for reliability. CAISO’s draft plan will also potentially tap over 38,000 MW of new solar, largely in NV and AZ, as well as 21,000 of geothermal capacity from the Imperial Valley and southern NV, and 5,600 MW of wind from ID, WY and NM.

4.) CAISO’s plan may be affected by SPP’s new Markets+ tariff filed with the FERC, a “a significant milestone” in developing its western day-ahead electricity market starting as early as 2027. Stakeholders include multiple utilities from states including Arizona, Nevada, and Washington. Some observers are concerned CAISO’s proposed Day-Ahead market and SPP’s initiative may create potential friction, and are arguing for a single large and efficient western market.

5.) Lawrence Berkeley National Lab interconnection analysis notes 2.6 TW of planned power projects are looking to connect to transmission, w/backlog up 27% from 2022. Solar, battery and wind projects comprise 95% of queue capacity.

6.) Two recent studies find re-conductoring (adding high-efficiency wire to new or existing projects) could boost new transmission capacity at relatively low cost. One report estimates reconductoring could add 64,000 GW-miles of new transmission by 2035, versus about 16,000 GW-miles using standard technologies and boost total costs by only 20%. A separate February report from Berkeley’s Haas School of Business modeled U.S. grid with similar results.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
CA & MD: Leading the Future of DER Policy
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Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

Two recent policy actions suggest an evolving future for DERs.

1) On March 21, 2024, the California PUC issued ruling permitting distributed renewables to be interconnected to the grid through an energy export schedule (referred to as a Limited Generation Profile or LGP). The ruling requires utilities to furnish hourly hosting capacity information for each circuit and lets asset developers design projects that stay within pre-defined limits - export levels can vary 24 times per year - instead of paying for upgrades such as new transformers.This provides a more realistic and cost-effective approach to renewable exports to the grid.

2) On April 4, 2024, the Maryland legislature passed the Distributed Renewable Integration and Vehicle Electrification Act, or DRIVE, that ow goes to the governor for signature. DRIVE requires utilities to compensate customers for providing grid services through virtual power plants, while specifically calling for utilities to accelerate vehicle to grid (V2G) bidirectional charging systems. Utilities must submit V2G plans by next April and virtual power plant plans 3 months later. 

3.) These actions matter. Today’s grid runs at around a 41% average annual capacity factor and it’s getting peakier. However, if we could cut demand by just 1%, we could reduce capital costs by roughly 8%. If we could cut peak demand by 10%, we’d reduce total expenditures by roughly a quarter. With a growing population of rooftop solar, home batteries, and EVs, we may soon have the tools to address this opportunity.

4.) California’s first-of-its-kind approach helps avoid unnecessary grid upgrades, while Maryland’s future virtual power plants and bi-directional EVs will add flexibility, while increasing capacity utilization factors –reducing costs per kilowatthour delivered.

5.) Charging EVs at the right times, combined with solar assets, rooftop batteries, and optimized bi-directional flows could deliver more clean power to the right locations, when we need it, while flattening those costly demand curves.

6.) If the two models were combined, then we’d really have something. Utilities elsewhere should be paying attention.

https://irecusa.org/blog/irec-news/milestone-decision-by-california-regulators-approves-the-use-of-der-schedules-to-avoid-interconnection-upgrades/

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/distributed-energy-resources/californias-new-rules-allow-solar-and-batteries-to-help-out-the-grid

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
Tech Giants Team Up with Nucor: Advancing Clean Energy Innovations
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Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

1.) Oak Ridge National Laboratory achieves “the world’s highest power density for a wireless charging system” for a passenger EV, sending 100 kW to a Hyundai Kona.

2.) California Energy Commission awards $3 mn to BorgWarner and project partners Fermata Energy and Lion Electric Company to support a 20-vehicle electric school bus fleet V2G project. Among other scenarios considered, V2G-enabled buses might power during Public Safety Power Shutoff events.

3.) Mondelez Deutschland Snacks Production receives permit from the State Office of Mining, Energy and Geology of Lower Saxony, Germany to explore locally for geothermal energy within 100 square km area. Mondelez is exploring potential of deep geothermal to supply carbon free heat that can support various industrial processes.

4.) Small-scale nuclear reactor company TerraPower plans to start building sodium-cooled modular nuclear reactor in Wyoming as early as June, irrespective of whether it has a Nuclear Regulatory Commission permit by then.

5.) Google, Microsoft, and Nucor combine demand for advanced clean electricity technologies, to accelerate development of new business models advancing early commercial-stage projects, such as advanced nuclear, next-generation geothermal, clean hydrogen, and long-duration energy storage.

6.) Following a successful pilot, Heimdall Power and Great River Energy announce the largest Dynamic Line Rating project in the U.S. to date, planning to install 52 of Heimdall’s Neurons across Great River grid, boosting transmission capacity.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
The Biden Administration Lays Out It's National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy

1.) The Biden Administration lays out its National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy – a plan for EV charging and hydrogen dispensing stations along major U.S. freight corridors to support increased deployment of medium-duty and heavy-duty zero-emission commercial vehicles over the next couple decades.

2.) Volvo will focus on software to shorten EV charging times, partnering with U.K.-based Breathe Battery Technologies to do so. Testing shows that Breathe’s charging software and battery management systems may reduce charging times by 15% to 30%.

3.) Sulfur battery company Lyten says it has successfully automated its lithium-sulfur battery production line, converting standard lithium-ion manufacturing equipment and processes in only 6 weeks, at less than 2% of the total capital cost. Thus, Lyten could rapidly scale production by converting existing Li-ion gigafactories. Its low-cost sulfur-based battery has no nickel, cobalt, manganese, or graphite, with potentially twice the energy density of conventional lithium-ion batteries (though battery life is currently at 300 cycles).

4.) The Ørsted and Eversource 12-turbine 130-MW offshore South Fork Wind project is fully commissioned and delivering energy to New York – the first 100+ MW offshore facility to do so.

5.) Washington state legislators allocate $25 million for development of small modular reactors, supporting utility Energy Northwest’s DOE loan application. Energy Northwest plans to develop up to 12 SMRs generating up to 960 MW of power as early as 2030.

6.) Advanced nuclear company Oklo successfully completes second phase of its Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article testing campaign with Argonne National Laboratory. Testing intended to optimize future reactor design.

7.) Analyst Wood Mackenzie says the SMR pipeline has increased, to a current 22 GW in Q1 2024, with global investment nearing US$176 billion. The US has over twice as many projects as the nearest competitor, with a 30% share of the global pipeline.

8.) Advanced deep geothermal startup Quaise Energy closes $21 Million financing round. Instead of traditional drilling approach,  Quaise plans to vaporize rock with high-powered microwaves. Field demonstrations will start this year, and Quaise will conduct magnetic and seismic surveys to identify advantageous areas for initial commercial pilots.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
US Breaks Crude Oil Production Record: Historic Achievement Reported by Energy Information Administration
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Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

1.) EV charging startup Gravity Mobility cuts ribbon on the fastest public charging station in the U.S.  The mid-town Manhattan station - designed for EV owners and fleet operators - boasts 500 kW chargers offering 200 miles of range in five minutes.

2.) Samsung SDI unveils battery tech roadmap with ultra-fast charging batteries by 2026 that can go from 8 to 80% state-of charge in 9 minutes.  All solid-state mass-produced battery eyed for 2027, increasing density by 40% over current model. Samsung also plans to mass-produce a battery by 2029 that will offer 20 years of cycle life.

3.) Enhanced geothermal company Fervo Energy raises $244 mn to support its 400 MW Cape Station project in Utah.

4.) Midwest grid operator MISO announces Tranche 2 of effort to bolster infrastructure to improve reliability and reduce curtailments, at an estimated price tag of between $17 billion and $23 billion.It includes several planned 765 kv high-voltage transmission lines to create a transmission highway.

5.) Oregon jury orders PacifiCorp to pay $42 mn to victims of Labor Day 2020wildfires. That follows previous jury awards of $90 million and $85 mn in other fire-related cases.

6.) Texas A&M Forest Service investigation finds Xcel Energy power lines responsible for record Smokehouse Creek blaze, noting a utility pole “appeared to be decayed at the base,” and fell into a grassy area. A&M also finds a second (Windy Deuce) fire also caused by power line.

7.) The Energy Information Administration reports the U.S produced more crude oil than any nation at any time in history, for the past six years in a row. 

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
Intl Airlines Group Commits to Largest Sustainable Fuel Deal Yet!

1.) The Washington state Legislature votes along party lines to adjust its carbon pricing system to make it compatible with California’s and Quebec’s cap-and-trade systems. The earliest any alliance could occur is 2025, assuming the cap-and-invest program survives a November referendum on its existence.

2.) International Airlines Group commits to its largest sustainable alternative fuel purchase agreement to date. Producer Twelve will deliver 785,000 tons of electrically derived sustainable aviation fuel, or e-SAF, using power-to-liquid technology and captured CO2 emissions.

3.) New York state approves offshore wind contracts for Equinor’s 810-MW Empire Wind 1 and Ørsted’s 924-MW Sunrise Wind. These projects re-bid at new price points. They had pulled back from previous commitments, claiming economics were no longer viable in the face of supply chain issues and other constraints. Other states - including New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut - are taking similar re-bid approaches.

4.) The IRS/Biden Adminstration rules affecting eligibility for clean hydrogen tax credits are coming under pressure, with criticism coming from the seven regional hydrogen hubs designated by the DOE late last year to accelerate the hydrogen industry. In a letter, the hubs commented the current approach “may have far-reaching negative consequences for the entire domestic clean hydrogen industry.”

5.) Stellantis brings back its Fiat 500e back to the U.S. with a price tag of just over $34K and low range of 149 miles. It may be a pretty good bellweather as to whether the American market will support a low-cost, low-range urban EV.

6.) Excel Energy files an 8K less than a week after the million-acre Smokehouse Creek fire, notifying the SEC that as of February 26th, fires were burning in or near the service territory of its Southwestern Public Service Company. Two days later, it received a letter from a law firm representing parties allegedly affected, providing Xcel Energy “with notice of potential exposure for damages” and requesting that a fallen SPS utility pole near the fire’s potential area of origin be preserved. Utilities are at increasing risk of this nature in a changing climate.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
New York City Adds 7,532 EVs to Lyft and Uber Fleet Since Last October

1.) Grid operator ISO-New England says substantial investments in grid infrastructure – up to $1 billion annually through 2050 - will be necessary to accommodate supply side renewables as well as end-use technologies such as EVs and heat pumps.

2.) New England’s offshore Vineyard Wind project is delivering 68 MW from its first 5 turbines, up from 5 MW in January, with another 738 MW still to come on-line. Nine of its planned 62 turbines in the water, while the 10th is currently being installed.

3.) The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management approves Equinor’s Construction and Operations Plan for 810 MW Empire Wind project to serve New York. Construction is set for later this year, with first power deliveries by 2026.

4.) The Orsted/Eversource JV’s 132 MW South Fork Wind installed the last of its 11 turbines on February 20, and should be fully commissioned in coming months.

5.) California’s Public Utilities Commission adopts a plan for development of over 56,000 MW of renewable generation by 2035, as part of effort to cut carbon emissions.  The plan includes a broad range of renewable and storage resources.

6.) New York City adds 7,532 EVs to Lyft and Uber fleet since last October, when its Green Rides effort was initiated. Current total exceeds 10,090 EVs, roughly 12% of the city’s Lyft and Uber population. 

7.) A total 105,258 plug-ins hit U.S. streets in January 2024, up 18.9% from January 2023, and representing 9.78% of total light duty vehicles sold. The U.S. EV total now stands at 4.8 million since 2010. U.S. battery manufacturers announced projects can supply around 10 million new plug-ins each year by 2030.

8.) WhileFord and GM slow their EV roll somewhat, Stellantis charges ahead, recording positive EV margins in the midst of record-breaking 2023 corporate profits. EV margins are not yet in line with conventional vehicles, but inching closer.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
Shell Will Immediately Close All of Its Hydrogen Refilling Stations in California

1.) Shell will immediately close all of its hydrogen refilling stations in California. Now, only seven hydrogen fueling stations – all in northern California remain open. The 3,143 California drivers who registered hydrogen cars in 2023 now own very nice-looking paperweights, until somebody else steps in.

2.) Koloma, a startup focused on drilling for hydrogen from natural underground deposits, raises $245.7 million, bringing its total funding to over $300 mn. In related news, the discovery of the largest deposit of naturally occurring H2 to date – in a chromium mine in Albania - was announced last week.

3.) Leading solar panel manufacturer and project developer QCells partners with solar recycling company SolarCYCLE to recycle QCells decommissioned panels. SOLARCYCLE says its tech can recover over 95% of the value in a solar panel module, and it just announced an investment of $344 mn into a new solar glass facilityin Georgia, capable of 5 to 6 GW of solar glass annually.

4.) The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management designates two final Wind Energy Areas off Oregon’s coast, totaling approximately 195,012 acres.

5.) Volt Lithium Corp successfully produces 99.5 per cent battery-grade lithium carbonate from oilfield brine at a demonstration plant in Calgary in the Athabasca Oil Sands.

6.) The Chief Operating Officer of Ford’s EV unit warns that China’s EV automakers plan to target North American markets with low cost EVs, saying “we’d better get fit now and better get going on EVs or we don’t have a future as a company.’” 

7.) Microsoft contracts with Swiss company Neustark to have 27,600 tons of carbon dioxide directly removed from the atmosphere and stored in waste concrete over the next six years. 

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
NASA is Completing Phase One of an Initiative to Put Nukes on the Moon

1.) Ontario’s grid operator, IESO, has teamed up with DER aggregator Energy Hub to develop a 90 MW virtual power plant, controlling enrolled thermostats in 100,000 homes.  All of this was accomplished since just the middle of last year.

2.) The North American Energy Standards Board has started work on a standardized services contract making it easier to aggregate DERs into virtual power plants, improve data sharing practices, and strengthen cyber-security.

3.) Citing high collision and damage costs and challenges to operational efficiency Hertz said it may further cut its EV fleet. Hertz’s CEO commented that customers in certain areas of U.S. are less familiar with EVs and more likely to get into accidents.

4.) Ford CEO Jim Farley commented the company is re-thinking its EV strategy after incurring a 2023 loss of $4.7 billion in its EV business.  Ford is working to better match supply with existing demand, while a formerly secret ‘skunkworks’ team is focused on developing a smaller and more affordable EV platform.

5.) Toyota will invest $1.3 billion in its Kentucky plant to support EVs, including a battery pack assembly line and ability to manufacture its electric SUV. Total electric investments now stand at $10 billion.

6.) Octopus Energy subsidiary Octopus Electric Vehicles has launched a used EV leasing program in the Houston Texas area, including unlimited free home charging. Leases range from $249 to 699 per month, and cover seven types of used EVs, and include the Chevy Bolt, to the Tesla Model 3, and the Audi e-Tron.

7.) NASA is completing phase one of an initiative to put nukes on the moon, with a concept design for a small reactor weighing less than six metric tons and generating 40 kilowatts, without direct human intervention. Target date is sometime in the 2030s.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
FBI Director Reveals Agency's Interception of Chinese State-Backed Initiative to House Lawmakers

1.) FBI Director Chris Wray told House lawmakers that his agency had identified and disrupted a Chinese state-backed initiative to plant malware in civilian infrastructure including water treatment plants, the power grid, and transportation systems. The FBI operation disrupted a botnet consisting of hundreds of small office and home routers that had been hijacked by the Chinese hackers to cover their tracks as they planted the malware in targets.

2.) Chinese manufacturers reportedly have 10 GWh of annual solid state battery production capacity, with over 128 GWh of additional capacity planned through 2025.

3.) Battery recycling company Redwood has started building its $3.5 bn South Carolina 'Battery Materials Campus' that will eventually yield up to 100 GWh worth of reclaimed battery materials, with the potential for more expansion if markets warrant. 

4.) Daimler Truck North America, Navistar, and Volvo Group North America, together accounting for an estimated 70 percent of all new medium-duty and heavy-duty truck sales in the U.S. have formed PACT, a coalition to advocate for accelerating the build-out of nationwide infrastructure to support medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles.

5.) In reporting to Texas regulators recently on lessons from Winter Storm Uri, an official from NERC advised increased collaboration between electric and gas sectors, as well as investigating new ways of providing black-start capability, including batteries.

6.) Germany’s market for on-site storage increased 150% last year with over 1 million cumulative country-wide installations, storing an estimated 12,000 megawatthours. 

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
Tesla Sells Record 1.8 Million Vehicles In 2023

1.) The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities selects two offshore wind projects totaling 3.7 GW in its third offshore wind solicitation round. New Jersey now has over 5.2 GW contracted, against its 2040 goal of 11 GW.

2.) Orsted has withdrawn from its contract for its 966MW Skipjack Wind 1 and 2 development off the Delmarva peninsula. It will continue development and permitting activities while it looks to rebid at a later date.

3.) BP and Equinor will restructure ownership in jointly owned offshore the Beacon Wind 1 and 2 and Empire Wind 1 & 2 projects off New York, essentially swapping rights.  BP will take over Beacon Wind while Equinor will pick up Empire Wind.

4.) The Edwards & Sanborn Solar + Energy Storage project, the largest solar-plus-storage project in the United States has been commissioned, combining 875 MW of solar with nearly 3.3 GWh of batteries. The project – with 1.3 GW of interconnected capacity - is partially located on Edwards Air Force Base in California.

5.) China installed more solar in 2023 – at 217 GW - than any other single nation has cumulatively developed. The U.S. stands at a cumulative total of 175 GW. 

6.) The U.S. Postal Service sees installation of first EV charging stations at South Atlanta Sorting and Delivery Center. Hundreds more will follow, eventually supporting over 66,000 electric delivery vehicles.

7.) The U.S DOE will award up to $30 million to fund research, development, and demonstration projects focused on improving the cybersecurity of clean energy resources. 

8.) Tesla sells record 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 with 1.2 million Model Ys, making it the most sold vehicle of any type in 2023. 

9.) Connecticut increases energy storage incentives, withresidential customers accessing up to $16,000 in upfront incentives — up from the $7,500 while low-income customers an underserved communities also benefit from increased support.

10.) H2Green Steel scores additional €4.5bn ($4.87) funding round for world’s first large-scale green-hydrogen-based steel plant. Half of the initial 2.5 million metric tons of steel is already contracted for in binding 5-7 year contracts.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
Hertz to Sell 20,000 EVs from U.S. Rental Fleet

1.) Eversource Energy to record earnings impairment of between USD 1.4 billion and 1.6 billion tied to three offshore wind projects totaling about 1700 MW.

2.) US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management launches regional consultation on possible development of six offshore wind lease locations east of NY and NJ, in the New York Bight.

3.) GE Vernova announces largest single order of wind turbines and services to date - a commitment from Pattern Energy for 674 3.6 MW for SunZia wind project in New Mexico.

4.) Hawaiian Electric company commissions 185 MW TeslaMegapack battery uniquely designed to offer multiple services including black-start, inertia, and capacity.

5.) GE Vernova’s Gas Power business secures order from Queensland Australia Government-owned CS Energy for 12 hydrogen-capable aeroderivative gas turbines. They will power a new 400 MW peaker, and can operate initially on 35 percent (by volume) of green H2.

6.) Hertz to sell 20,000 EVs from U.S. rental fleet, citing higher expenses related to collision and damage. Herz had previously announced target to electrify 25% of its fleet by the end of 2024.

7.) PJM Interconnection’s new forecast triples expected demand over coming decade. Summer and winter peak load expected to grow by 1.7% and 2% a year, while total energy demand is expected to jump 2.4% a year, up from 0.8% growth expectations last year. Key drivers are industry, datacenters and EVs.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
Ford to Increase Prices on F-150 Lightning Pickup Models for 2024

1.) Chinese EV automakers roll out first two compact EVs using sodium batteries.

2.) VW subsidiary PowerCo tests solid state battery cells from QuantumScape and confirm over 1,000 cycles, with 95% of capacity available at test’s conclusion.

3.) IRS publishes official list of EVs and PHEVs qualifying for 2024 tax credit, based upon domestic content, with number of eligible models falling from 43 to 19.

4.) Ford informs dealers it will raise prices on most versions of F-150 Lightning pickup by between $2,000 and 10,000 over the 2023 versions.

5.) GM expects new EVs - Chevy Equinox, GMC Sierra Denali, and Cadillac OPTIQ, to eventually qualify for full $7,500 tax incentive, and will offer the same tax credit for any that are temporarily ineligible.

6.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approves California Independent System Operator’s proposed regional day ahead market that expands the current Real-Time Energy Imbalance Market. Go-live planned for early 2026.

7.) Vestas nabs turbine orders for two U.S. wind projects totaling 302MW, using 4.0 and 4.5 MW turbines. Onshore turbines just keep getting larger.

8.) Offshore wind project Vineyard Wind delivers its first MW to the New England grid, with the first 5 MW of the 62-turbine 806 MW project arriving onshore on January 2.  Project is expected to be fully operational later this year.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Teaming With Amazon

1.) U.S. storage market notches new record in Q3 2023, with 7,322 megawatt hours commissioned, including 6,848 MWh utility scale and a little under 500 MWh at customer sites. Q3 would have been far larger, if roughly 80% of planned projects had not been delayed.

2.) US solar industry also hits record Q3 numbers, with 6,500 MW installed. 

3.) National Renewable Energy Laboratory teaming with Amazon to create GHG emissions model using higher-resolution and hourly data and longer timeframes so clean energy buyers can make better informed green energy buying decisions. 

4.) AES, Constellation, Google, and Microsoft are working with renewables power purchase administrator LevelTen Energy to create the Granular Certificate Trading Alliance. They will design new marketplace for trading time- and location-specific renewable energy certificates to assist with 24*7 PPA matching.

5.) The Department of the Interior announces proposed 278,000-acreoffshore wind lease areas off Delaware and Maryland, and Virginia.  At the same time, though, the Biden Administration to cut a major portionof another Central Atlantic offshore wind lease in response to concerns from the NASA and the Department of Defense.

6.) PJM’s board approves $5 billion slate of transmission projects needed in response to an estimated 7,500 MW of data center growth and 11,000 MW of generating plant retirements.

7.) Ford will slash F-150 Lightning electric pickup production next year, from 3,200 to around 1,600 units per week, citing softened demand.

8.) Ford also working on initiative with Resideo Technologies, with joint simulation project to explore vehicle-to-home (V2H) energy management and evaluate potential of EVs to support optimal home energy management, pairing of bi-directional EV charging with smart thermostats.

9.) School bus maker Blue Bird and finance company Generate Capital form JV to offer school bus electrification-as-a-service offerings to school districts. Monthly fees will cover Blue Bird school buses and chargers, project planning and management, and fleet and charging optimization.

10.) Duke Energy disconnects large-scale batteries from Chinese company CATL at North Carolina Marine Corps base Camp Lejeune after lawmakers and experts raise alarms about CATL’s ties to China's ruling Communist Party.

11.) Japan’s latest offshore wind solicitation round includes a 684 MW project deploying 38 of GE’s new massive 18 MW turbines.

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
U.S. Treasury Plans Strict Criteria for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Subsidies, Leaked News Suggests

1.) Leaked news suggests the U.S. Treasury Department will adopt strict eligibility guidelines for its low-carbon hydrogen subsidies.

2.) Maersk orders four “very large ammonia carriers” – at 93,000 cubic meters of cargo space, they will be the largest such vessels in operation when commissioned in 2026.

3.) Norwegian developer Scatech has signed an MOU with Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone to develop a $1.1bn green methanol plant to offer clean maritime fuel to ships in the canal, yielding 27,000 metric tons of H2 annually by 2027.

4.) New York’s 12-turbine, 130 MW South Fork Wind project delivers energy to Long Island from first two turbines, while Avangrid and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners say they have installed the first five 13 MW GE Haliade-X turbines at the 800 MW Vineyard Wind offshore project, with first energy to be delivered to Massachusetts before year’s end.

5.) A review of data for FY 2021 reveals there were over 6,000 energy outages at Department of Defense installations across the U.S., totaling over 3,000 lost days of power.  About 98% of DOD installations rely on the grid.

6.) Liquid CO2 battery company Energy Dome advances first large energy storage project - a 20MW/200MWh undertaking in Sardinia.

7.) U.S. battery swapping company Ample is collaborating with Stellantis to service a fleet of 100 Fiat 500e electric minicars.

8.) The Treasure issues-long awaited guidance on domestic content in batteries eligible for EV tax credits, temporarily exempting some trace critical minerals from new strict rules barring materials from China and other countries deemed a "Foreign Entity of Concern."

9.) Volkswagen advances vehicle-to-home capabilities with a pilot project in Sweden, with bi-directional flows to homes. Houses with solar will be able to use EV batteries to store energy and discharge to residences from vehicles. 

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
New Jersey Officials Announced They Will Ban Sales of Internal Combustion Vehicles by 2035

1.) European battery maker Northvolt proclaims development of first-gen sodium-ion battery cells, validating densities at 160 Wh/kg – similar to lithium iron phosphate.

2.) As if to underscore this announcement, Chinese EV company BYD announces multi-billion dollar plan to make up to 30 gigawatthoursannually of sodium-based EV batteries.

3.) New Jersey officials announced they will ban sales of internal combustion vehicles by 2035.

4.) BNEF reports the price of lithium-ion battery packs has fallen 14% to a record low of $139/kWh.

5.) Chinese automaker Geely to work with Chinese EV maker and charging company Nio on battery swapping, developing swapping standards, accelerating battery swapping tech, and developing approaches compatible with each other’s systems.

6.) Nio has around 2,100 battery swap stations in China and – as of last week, 30 in Europe.

7.) Detroit sees first quarter-mile of test roadway equipped with wireless EV charging tech from  Israeli induction charging pioneer Electreon. 

8.) Avangrid announces pilot project with LineVision using dynamic line rating technology to increase New York’s current transmission capabilities. LineVision says its technology boots capacity on existing lines by 25 to 40%. 

9.) Google and advanced geothermal company Fervo announce 3.5 MW first-of-its kind geothermal project in Nevada is producing power.

10.) Two weeks ago, Gulfstream announced it had flown one of its jets on sustainable aviation fuel – SAF, from Savannah Georgia to Farnborough England.

11.) That was quickly followed up by a Virgin Atlantic SAF-poweredcommercial jetliner flight from London to New York. 

Peter Kelly-Detwiler
The Biden Administration to Provide Funds of Over $6 BN for Climate Resilience Programs

1.) New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced that expedited offshore wind solicitations will take place early in 2024., with an RFP issued November 30, 2023, final proposals due on 25 January 2024, and award announcements by the end of February 2024.

2.) The Electric Reliability Council of Texas had released an RFP in early October for up to 3,000 MW of capacity from mothballed power plants and DR. With only 11 MW applying, ERCOT canceled the RFP on November 17.

3.) Chinese sales of cars with plugs hit an all-time high in October, notching a record 956,000 units in October.

4.) The U.S. DOE will award up to $3.5 billion to boost domestic production of advanced batteries and battery materials.  A priority will be placed on next-generation technologies and battery chemistries.

5.) The Biden Administration announced that it would provide funds of over $6 bn for climate resilience programs, targeting areas such as flood risk, and addressing community environmental justice. $3.9 billion will be spent to increase the robustness of the U.S. electric grid.

6.) GE Vernova’s Onshore Wind business completed its first onshore wind turbine at its assembly line in Schenectady, NY. The 6.1 MW machines, withtip heights soaring to 650 feet, are designed for low-to-medium wind speeds. 

Peter Kelly-Detwiler