Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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How can AI help make the grid more efficient, reliable, and resilient? Today, we’ll tackle some promising use cases on the supply side, in the bulk power system. 

With transmission, AI can help with predictive maintenance. Operationally, it can help boost the performance of transmission lines by assisting certain grid enhancing technologies (known as GETs) that make more efficient use of existing infrastructure. Dynamic line rating replaces the historical method of limiting capacity based on static ratings in favor of an approach looking at actual ambient conditions. Lower temps and higher wind speeds pull heat from lines, allowing them to move more power, in some cases as much as 50% more.

That helps limit congestion bottlenecks and aids with the interconnection of more generating assets, and is most helpful to wind assets, since logically during the same periods when wind turbine output is high, that same wind is dissipating heat from the lines.

Then there’s topology optimization - opening and closing breakers to route power differently, facilitating higher utilization of assets. AI can help by more quickly assessing a wider variety of scenarios.

Then there’s interconnection, a big problem today. In 2000, it only took two years.  Planners were dealing with fewer and far larger projects – mostly big gas and coal plants, with only about 300 projects in the queue. That number is now over 10,000. AI can help cut time required to evaluate scenarios and increase the number of scenarios that can be assessed.

On the generation side, gas generators can be run more efficiently based on operating conditions rather than prescribed schedules. Algorithms applied to data from sensors can tell grid operators how hard they can run a turbine, and better understand when to take turbine out for maintenance, rather than relying on fixed schedules.

AI also helps generate longer term and more geographically precise weather forecasts which help supply asset operators refine output projections and dispatch strategies, while optimizing utility scale battery storage and dispatch as well.

Within a wind farm, AI can minimize the disruptions in wind flow affecting downwind turbines by steering wakes and optimizing output. This can cut land requirements for future wind plants by an average of 18% and up to 60%.

AI can also help advanced geothermal projects that extract heat from solid rock miles underground and use it to generate power. Machines and algorithms can tell operators where to drill, physically guide the drill bit through rock, predict reservoir behavior and determine how much heat to extract from a given area over a specified duration.

Some of these applications are already happening with AI related to machine learning. But as the large language models become increasingly powerful and more sophisticated, the ability to develop generative AI – to understand the patterns of existing data and then generate new data to improve decision-making will take us to the next level.

If these AI-driven datacenters are going to stress the grid with all this new demand, we might as well get as much value out of these new capabilities as we possibly can. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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In past sessions, we looked at AI-driven load, key value propositions for AI, growth projections, large language model training issues, and possible impacts on wholesale power prices. In this section, we’ll review impacts on distribution utilities. 

In competitive markets, the risk of poor economic outcomes is borne by shareholders. With vertically integrated utilities, financial impacts of decisions – good or bad - are passed on to ratepayers.

Let’s summarize.

1. AI data centers are huge.

2. They want power now. 

3. Utilities are being asked to rapidly build supply and supporting infrastructure.

4. There is much uncertainty as to where and how AI will actually generate a profit, and whether LLMs can keep growing at current rates.

5. There is also much uncertainty concerning future electricity use. Rapidly growing use of liquid cooling, for example - putting servers in dielectric fluids - can dramatically reduce cooling loads. Then there are the chips. IBM in September announced a breakthrough in chip efficiency and market leader Nvidia continues to make gains here as well.

Utilities face requests to build gigawatts of new generation assets and transmission infrastructure with timeframes that may not line up with AI load being served. Gas plants, e.g., may have 30-40 year lifespans over which amortized. 

If AI business models change and demand for those assets evaporates, then ratepayers will pay the consequence. 

The AEP Ohio rate case highlights the issues around transmission. AE wants to manage risk, requesting large upfront financial commitments. The data companies are pushing back. Walmart and other end users are weighing in, since they, too, may be affected. New data load could crowd out other economic development, while increasing rates.

One study out this week suggests an increase of as much as 70 percent in the next decade.

Utility regulators will have to be informed in ways they’ve never had to in the past, instituting new safeguards, with tens or hundreds of billions of dollars of ratepayers’ money at stake.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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Updates since last week:

Vistra is in discussions with two large companies concerning sale of power from existing gas and nuclear facilities, with plants in ERCOT and PJM eliciting interest. 

PG&E and real estate developer Westbank plan to develop a district energy system combining three new data centers – using up to 200 MW - and 4,000 residential units in San Jose. 

Modular nuke start-up Oklo has LOIs and will partner with two major data center providers to deliver up to 750 MW.

Sharon AI and industrial gas company New Era Helium Corp announced LOI to form JV for design, development, and operation of a 90MW data center in New Mexico’s Permian Basin.

Bloom announces deal to sell up to 1 GW of fuel cells to AEP Ohio.

Gas pipeline company Energy Transfer increases estimate of gas  in discussion w/datacenters from 3 bcf/day to 10 bcf.

Today, we’ll discuss potential implications of AI load for other electricity users in wholesale markets. Next week, we’ll cover distribution utilities.

One more thing: just to cast some high-level doubt into the equation. Recent comments and indicators from the industry hint that gains from language learning models may be slowing down. This is worth watching: it implies simply throwing stronger chips and more energy at the problem may not be enough. 

But assuming the AI language learning model training effort will continue at the current pace. If so, what are likely impacts to wholesale markets?

Some markets will be affected much more than others. ISO-NE and NYISO likely won’t see that much impact as it’s hard to site many datacenters or new power plants to supply them.

PJMis another story. In January, PJM had tripled its forecasted growth numbers from 2023, well before many new utility announcements. Dominion’s service territory is crowded, but new load is going to other regions: New Jersey’s PSEG just filed an updated forecast to PJM in late October, w/datacenter load growing from 343 MW to 1,196 by 2030. Exelon in late October requested of PJM a Large Load forecast adjustment of 2,600 MW for 2029.

The mid-Continental ISO – MISO – is not seeing quite the same pressure, but its CEO noted this month that 2.5 GW of new datacenter load showed up, and over 4,600 MW of data center load is noted in MISO’s July 30th Existing Large Load and New Load Additions Update. 

Texas is seeing huge demand growth. Oncor alone reports 59,000 MW of requests in a system peaking at 85,000 MW this summer. 

SPP and California? SPP is not a big datacenter market – yet. But it’s growing. North Dakota, may see massive growth from just two undisclosed companies, starting at 500 to 1,000 MW and growing 10x from there, w/up to $250 bn in investment. Meanwhile, California’s power prices may be just too high, and land too expensive to attract much AI load. 

The pressure is most likely going to be centered on the competitive markets in Texas and PJM.

But power prices will be affected everywhere because of equipment limitations, esp. transformers and switchgear, and related raw materials.

Then add the fact that interconnection queues are slowing down, and supply is simply unavailable. So, prices are headed up – more in some markets than others. Consulting group Bain & Company projects average annual cost increases of 1% annually. These increases will be more concentrated in areas of rapid growth, but nowhere will this dynamic be deflationary.

In the next and final session, we’ll talk about the distribution utilities, the enormous uncertainties facing them, and the inherent risk of overbuilding in an extremely uncertain AI world.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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"Previously, we examined the enormous projections for datacenter growth and the energy required to serve that potential demand. We then discussed issues related to chips, power draw, availability of data, and other issues affecting future growth prospects.

Today, we’ll look at potential supply options for datacenters.

Of all factors limiting datacenter growth, power is the big one. Today, most of that energy is used for training – the computers crunching through data to make connections and create intelligence.

Processing and inference are estimated to consume about 70-80% of the power used. In training, most of all the energy is used in the initial run model – which can take weeks or longer. 20-30% of that power use is dedicated to cooling.

The amount of energy used for “inference” - the outputs or decisions from the trained models – is growing rapidly. Inference usage adds up. Questiond to Chat or Perplexity or a host of other platforms burn through about 10x the energy in standard Google search. Training is initially much larger than inference in terms of electricity use, but the latter grows over time.

So where to get the power? Globally, there’s a preference for the U.S. with its large grid, stable economy, rule of law, and access to communications cables. Europe’s grid is old, and space is at a premium, so some datacenters will locate in Malysia, Singapore, Brazil, anywhere they can get power. China is its own case and growing rapidly.

AI increasingly becomes a national security issue - since the release of ChatGPT two years ago, the U.S. Department of Defense has awarded $670 mn to over 300 companies working on AI-related projects.

In the U.S., supply strategies are:

1) The grid.

2) Existing assets, such as nuclear. Amazon Web Services accessed 300 MW of Talen’s nuclear plant before the FERC rejected plans for an additional 660 MW. Constellation and Microsoft are planning on a 20-year 835 MW agreement to resuscitate Three Mile Island Unit 1. Nextera recently is in talks with the feds and conducting engineering assessments as they eye restarting a 600 MW nuke in Iowa. But only so many existing and recently closed nukes to go exist.

3) Some may opt for fuel cells. In 2024 Bloom Energy expanded a 6.5 MW supply agreement to an Intel datacenter and announced another 15-year 20MW deal with Amazon Web Services. But total quantities will be relatively small in the big picture. 

4) Advanced/enhanced geothermal will help: Google has a 3.5 MW deal with developer Fervo Energy in Nevada and committed to buying 115 MW of energy from Fervo under a contract with utility NV Energy. Sage Geosystems announced a 150 MW agreement with MetaThese first large projects won’t come online for a few more years, and the industry isn’t going to see 10s of GWs anytime soon.

5) Modular nuclear? Small reactor company Oklo inked a 500 MW deal with colocation company Equinix.  Google signed a deal with start-up Kairos Power for 500 MW between 2030 and 2035. Amazon Web Services announced an investment in modular reactor company X Energy, and an agreement for 320 MW with an option to expand to 960 MW. Delivery date: early mid-2030s.

W/exception of NuScale, no players even have design approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The logical outcome is to bypass the grid entirely and go right to the gas pipeline. Numerous gas pipeline companies report discussions with datacenter operators for direct gas hook-ups to support behind-the-meter generation. Energy Transfer is in discussions with datacenters for new demand in excess of 3 Bcf/day.

The picture is still murky since it’s early days, but all things equal, new AI load whether directly supplied or grid-dependent will likely raise prices for everybody. In our next session, we’ll discuss why.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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“Let’s start with some new data points from last week:

First, Exelon’s CEO says it has seen what he terms “high probability” datacenter load jump from 6 to 11 GW this year. 

Google’s CEO indicated that over 25% of new code in the company is generated by AI and then reviewed by engineers. AI substitution for human labor is a huge part of the AI value proposition.

The Financial Times estimates spending on AI datacenters for the big four - Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft will exceed $200 billion this year.

The FERC rejected a request from Amazon Web Services to expand a contract involving power supply to its data center co-located at Talen Energy's Susquehanna nuclear power plant in PA. 

Now, let’s talk compute: the goal here for competitors is to improve the quality of their language learning models so they can deal with more complex logic and increase overall accuracy. They do this by training on lots of data with increasingly powerful machines. 

Analyst Epoch AI notes that annual compute capability has recently been growing at a rate of 4X. Will this growth will continue at that torrid pace, and what the implications are for our power grids?

Epoch AI looks at this issue by examining four underling factors: 1) power availability – our sweet spot that we will talk a lot more about later; 2) global chip capacity; 3) the “latency wall,” delays in increasingly complex computations; and 4) the availability of data to train on. Let’s look at 2 through 4 - we will deal with power in its own session. 

Chips are in high demand. These game processing units – GPUs – bring power and parallel processing to the game, performing highly complex calculations at rapid speeds. GPUs keep getting better, but are in high demand and also expensive. Nvidia’s newest Blackwell chip cost about $10 billion to design and create, and buyers are paying $30,000 to 40,000 per GPU. That same Blackwell chip draws between 700 W and 1.2 kW depending on the configuration and cooling strategy. 

Nvidia owns about 80% of GPU market share, followed by AMD, and the industry cannot keep up with current demand. But Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are all at work developing their own chips, so that strain may eventually ease.

Next, let’s look at the “latency wall.” It takes a certain amount of time (latency) for an AI model to process each datapoint, and that latency increases as model sizes grow. Models train by separating data into batches, and each AI training run takes as long as is needed to process a batch. The more batches processed, the longer the run takes. Today’s latencies aren’t that big – batches can be processed quickly. But as future training runs get larger and models get bigger, this could become an issue, and efficiencies might fall off. This scaling issue may limit future growth rates.

Finally, let’s look at data. AI datacenters train on data. Everything we ever posted to LinkedIn, Facebook or Insta. Youtube videos. Scientific papers, Movies, TV shows, stupid clips on TikTok. All of it. To understand data, we must understand the concept of a token - the smallest element into which text data can be broken down into in order for the AI model to process it. One word is usually a single token. With images, audio clips or video,s computers typically break them into smaller patches for tokenization (one picture or one second of video might represent 30 tokens).

It’s estimated that the web holds about 500 trillion words of unique text, which may grow 50%. by 2030. Add in images, audio, and video and you might get to 20 quadrillion tokens for computer training by the end of the decade. BUT, projections are that with ever faster computers and more efficient algorithms we might actually run out of data to train on, even as soon as 2026. Then, machines may learn to generate their own synthetic data. Or they could find other ways to learn. Nobody really knows. This uncertainty leads to a critical question for utilities. What if we build all this infrastructure, and then by 2030, there’s less to do with it? The phrase “stranded assets” should come to mind.

Meanwhile, chips become increasingly more efficient, requiring less electricity for processing and addressing the waste heat. Nvidia says its GPUs used in training have seen a 2000x reduction in energy use over 10 years. Until now, such gains have allowed data centers to do more and their appetite appears endless. But if future gains continue, how does that affect future datacenter power needs? Nobody truly knows. What we do know now is that the power grab continues unabated, and data centers are looking at all kinds of supply strategies to get the juice wherever they can. And that’s the topic we will focus on in the next session.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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This video is the first in a multi-part series aimed at explaining AI-driven datacenter load and implications for the power grid. It’s not that EV load or power demand from Bitcoin doesn’t matter. It’s just that the potential future demand from datacenters is so much larger.

In May, the Electric Power Institute estimated data centers might consume up to 9% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030. McKinsey thinks EPRI is underestimating the demand. It projects 11 – 12% of total load by 2030, totaling 80,000 MW of demand.

An EPRI May - July survey of 26 utilities showed 60% had requests for new datacenter hookups of 500 MW or larger, and 48% had requests over 1,000 MW.  Almost half said that current datacenter requests exceed 50% of current peak demand. None of the utilities surveyed had current datacenter load over 500 MW.

Dominion Virginia serves the world’s data hub because of local high-speed fiber backbone. It served 2,800 MW of datacenters in 2022, and now it’s closer to 5,000 MW, equal to one-quarter of the entire state’s power usage. 50,000 MW of datacenter load is waiting in line, but Dominion now says it won’t hook up new datacenters over 100 MW for seven years.

In Texas, Oncor faces 59,000 MW of datacenter connection requests, while AEP Ohio – which serves 600 MW of data centers has interconnection requests now exceeding 40,000 MW.

What’s going on? Nobody really saw this coming, with the exception of a few AI industry insiders - even most of them have been surprised. 

Why? The tech is getting better. In 1997 IBM’s Deep Blue Watson beat world chess champion Gary Kasparov. But that was simple math. In 2011, Jeopardy king Ken Jennings got destroyed.

Then in 2016 AlphaGo crushed top Korean Go player Lee Sedol. Go is far harder than chess: 361 squares vs 64. In chess, within two moves you have about 400 potential outcomes vs around 130,000 in Go. 

The AlphaGo team taught its computer to play against humans, and then to play millions of games against itself. 

On the 37th move of Game 1 against Sedol, AlphaGo placed a stone in a location that nobody would have expected, appearing to demonstrate creativity. And won, demonstrated the growing capabilities of AI.

But AI still couldn’t really demonstrate prowess on tests or tough conceptual logic. Now it can. Quickly. In 2022 ChatGPT 3.5 scored in the 40th percentile on the law school LSAT exam. In 2023, it jumped to 88th.  How about the standard SAT? It went from 87th to 97th. Within a few years, we will see “super-intelligence,” where computers exceed the thought processes of the best human.

Why is this occurring so quickly? Quite simply, the machines are training more quickly with more powerful chips. Next week, we’ll discuss chips and the electricity they devour.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Meta to invest up to $35 million in carbon removal projects over the next year, in response to the US DOE’s Carbon Dioxide Removal Purchasing Challenge. The DOE also making $35 mn investment while recognizing other buyers and tracking voluntary carbon removal purchases. The goal is to catalyze infant industry and improve transparency concerning CO2 removal credits. Meta now joins Google as the second large data company to commit to program.

2.) Google signs deal to buy 500 MW of energy from modular nuclear start-up company Kairos Power. First reactor slated to come online in 2030, with additional reactors added through 2035. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

3.) Amazon inks contract with utility consortium Energy Northwest to deploy four of modular nuclear start-up X-energy’s 80 MW reactors in the early 2030s. It also made an equity investment in X-energy, while signing a separate deal with Dominion Energy to explore innovative structures to help advance potential SMR development in Virginia. 

4.) Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Dongfang rolls out world’s largest 26-MW offshore wind turbine capable of generating 100GWh annually. Earlier this year, Dongfang installed its first 18 MW turbine, while Mingyang has deployed a 20 MW machine. 

5.) Kelley Blue Book says Q3 U.S. EV sales grew by 11% year over year, notching reached record highs for both volume and market share. Nearly 350,000 EVs were sold in the quarter, up 5% from Q2 and representing 8.9% of all passenger vehicles sold. 

6.) California utility PG&E advances pilot program for bidirectional EV charging, meant to demonstrate how improving distribution circuit utilization can reduce the need for distribution infrastructure upgrades and keep costs down. Residential customers must have the Ford F-150 Lightning truck, which at present can only be used for managed charging and home backup power, rather than energy export. Three electric school bus models are eligible in full bi-directional mode if they have the right chargers.

7.) The California Energy Commission says its Demand Side Grid Support program – unveiled in August 2022 - now manages 515 MW of capacity furnished by 265,000 participants. This includes a 200 MW virtual power plant network of customer-sited batteries and solar arrays. That has been activated 16 times in 2024.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) The power struggle between utility AEP Ohio and the datacenter giants including Amazon, Google and Microsoft gets more contentious. Tech companies file a “negotiated settlement” with Ohio Public Utilities Commission addressing AEP Ohio’s interconnection process for large datacenters, AEP president immediately objects.  May datacenter load stood at 600 MW, w/ additional 4,400 MW of requests in queue. That number has now soared to 30,000 MW. Many North American utilities face similar pressures.

2.) Mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM to delay planned December capacity auction for six months in order to develop reforms to capacity market. Delay would affect at least three upcoming auctions affecting capacity for the 2026/27,  2027/28 and 2028/29 delivery years.

3.) Biden administration to provide nearly $1.5 bn to boost four large-scale power lines through revolving fund meant to support riskier transmission projects. 1,000 miles of planned lines would deliver 7,100 MW of new gen capacity in Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

4.) The New York Power Authority publishes draft Strategic Plan to increase NY renewables by 3.5 GW. 

5.) Hydrogen study by Harvard University researchers shows most H2 project cost estimates significantly understate storage and distribution costs, concluding H2 is prohibitively expensive for addressing greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Hurricane Helene slams into southeastern U.S., killing dozens and leaving almost 6 million customers in ten states without power.  Some areas so badly hit that full reconstruction of energy infrastructure will be required, with North and South Carolina especially affected.

2.) The U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management cancels floating offshore wind auction off Oregon’s coast due to lack of bidder interest - only one of the five companies eligible to bid remained interested.

3.) Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai indicates company is working on datacenters exceeding 1 GW in size, and suggests growing datacenter loads will result in massive capital investment in new sources of power, potentially including modular nuclear.

4.) Microsoft testing the use of green hydrogen at Ireland data center. Supplier ESB will deploy 250kW of fuel cells to deliver electricity to the data center power control and administration building at Microsoft’s Dublin campus over an eight-week period.

5.) Data center startup ECL says it will develop a 1GW hydrogen-powered AI datacenter near Houston, Texas at a cost of $0.08-0.12/kWh. H2 will initially be derived from carbon-intensive steam methane reformation process. By next year 50 percent of supply is anticipated to be blue hydrogen (carbon capture), and by 2026 the goal is to migrate to 80 percent blue and 20 percent green H2 from renewables.

6.) California Governor Newsom signs SB 1006, a law directing the state to upgrade its transmission system through grid-enhancing technologies including dynamic line rating systems, advanced power flow systems and topology optimization software, and reconductoring.

7.) U.S. Department of Defense breaks ground in eastern Idaho for the country's first transportable nuclear reactor, expected to yield between one to five megawatts of power for military use in remote locations. A protective concrete structure will be built to house the reactor, expected to be delivered in four shipping containers from a Virginia manufacturer in 2026.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Advanced Geothermal company Fervo Energy completes new tests at Utah Cape Station project exceeding productivity levels that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory did not believe would be met for at least another decade. The company drilled to temperatures of 428 degrees Fahrenheit, plenty hot enough for generating power. It also finalized a construction loan of $100 million to advance the project. 

2.) BLM’s Utah office is looking at 2025 new geothermal leasing round of up to 50,000 acres.

3.) Massachusetts and Rhode Island select 2,878 megawatts of offshore wind in the first inter-state coordinated procurement. Massachusetts to take 2,678 MW from three projects, representing nearly 20 percent of its overall power demand, while Rhode Island selects 200 MW, and Connecticut sits out this round.

4.) Oracle says it’s designing a gigawatt-scale data center to be powered by three small modular reactors but offers no detail on location or construction timelines.

5.) Microsoft is working with Constellation Energy to take up to 100% of the revitalized Three Mile Island nuclear power plant’s 837 MW Unit 1. Pending regulatory approval, Constellation would spend $1.6 bn to reopen the mothballed Pennsylvania facility by 2028 to supply data centers in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia, and Ohio under a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement.

6.) The U.S. DOE announces over $3 billion for 25 selected projects across 14 states to boost the domestic production of advanced batteries and battery materials nationwide. The DOE’s Investing in America agenda is expected generate $16 billion in total investment for battery manufacturing and recycling, intended to remedy gaps and create growth opportunities in the battery supply chains.

7.) Owners of some Ford EVs can now participate in Southern California Edison’s Emergency Load Reduction Program, earning $1/kWh of energy reduced during peak grid events. Given high CA rates, it’s unclear whether this incentive will be sufficient. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) California to contract up to 2 GW of long-duration energy storage resources as part of 10.6-GW clean energy procurement program to be deployed between 2031 and 2037. CA looking for up to 1 GW of minimum 12-hour, and 1 GW of multi-day capabilities. Same procurement also includes up to 1 GW of geothermal and 7.6 GW of floating offshore wind.

2.) The Texas PUC approves up to $5.4 bn of state-backed loans at 3% for 17 gas-fired generation assets offering almost 10,000 MW of new capacity.

3.) The Nuclear Regulatory Commission OKs Dominion Energy application to extend its 2,000 MW North Anna Power Station’s operating licenses for an additional 20 years. The two reactors can now run through 2058 and 2060.

4.) Bloomberg New Energy Finance reports 428,000 MW of solar were installed globally last year, up 76% over 2022.

5.) Advanced geothermal startup Sage Geosystems and data company Meta agree to a deal for up to 150 MW of 24/7 geothermal energy somewhere east of the Rocky Mountains. Phase 1 of the project would operate by 2027.

6.) China’s MingYang installs first 20 MW turbine, designed for offshore environments, though initial turbine will be installed onshore.

7.) GM and Samsung SDI finalize terms for a $3.5 billion EV battery factory in Indiana, with commissioning in 2027. The factory, delayed about a year owing to market conditions, will boast an initial capacity of 27 gigawatt-hours and a maximum capacity of 36 gigawatt-hours per year.

8.) Nissan approves updated 20 kW bidirectional charger from Fermata, that won’t void the warranty, for use with Leaf EV. Virtual power plant company Swell Energy to shut down, leaving some utility DER programs in the air. 

9.) TotalEnergies paying $100 mn to preserve 750,000 acres of U.S. forests, reaping associated carbon credits.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Xcel Energy first utility in U.S to file a plan with regulators to build its own virtual power plant. Northern Power in Minnesota wants to combine 440 MW of distributed solar with 400 MW of battery storage (duration not mentioned) located strategically on the grid so they can be operated in a concerted fashion.

2.) Form Energy receives $147 million U.S. DOE grant for 85 MW, 8,500 MWh iron air battery at former paper mill site in northern Maine, w/focus on easing wind-related congestion issues. Anticipated commissioning date is 2028.

3.) The US BOEM and Maine agree on location for the nation’s first floating offshore wind energy research lease, stretching over 15 square miles and located 28 nautical miles offshore. Lease could host up to 12 machines at 12 MW each, and will help assess the viability of floating wind.

4.) GE Vernova sees yet another offshore turbine blade suffering damage – this one at the UK’s Dogger Bank project, the second incident at Dogger bank – another blade failed in May. The cause remains under investigation.

5.) Cirba Solutions opens $400 mn battery recycling plant expansion in Ohio, the first large energy facility to come online after receiving support from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The plant will produce annually 15,000 tons of black mass –combined lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese – that can be separated and integrated into new batteries.

6.) Ford continues back-pedaling on EVs in face of losses, eliminating plans for a three-row electric SUV and going the hybrid route instead. Ford will not launch any new EVs unless it can see a path to profitability in the first year.

7.) BMW out-sells Tesla in Europe for the first time in July; w/14, 869 EVs to Tesla’s 14,561. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Small Modular Reactor company Oklo says it has non-binding letters of intent for approximately 1,350 MW of microreactor capacity, with about half of that from data centers.

2.) The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) releases final Environmental Assessment for offshore wind leases off Oregon’s coast, finding leases would have no significant impacts to people or the environment.

3.) BOEM also auctions two lease areas off Delaware, Maryland and Virginia, with two provisional winners. Equinor Wind won a Lease for $75 mn, covering 101,443 acres about 26 miles offshore. Dominion’s Virginia Electric and Power Co won a Lease for $17.6 mn, spanning 176,505 acres about 35 miles offshore.

4.) Offshore developer Orsted books Q2 losses of $575 million, in part related to delays in U.S. wind portfolio. It also delayed 704 megawatt (MW) Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island and Connecticut from 2025 to 2026, owing to soil contamination at an onshore transformer station located at a former naval air station.

5.) Chinese electric automaker Nio notches 50 millionth battery swap, offering a cumulative 2.62 million MWh of electricity to its EV drivers. Nio also estimates it saved 2.85 billion minutes of wait time relative to public charging alternatives.

6.) U.S. developers and power plant owners added 20.2 GW of generating capacity over the first half of 2024, with another 42.6 GW of capacity expected before year’s end. Solar totaled 12 GW, while battery storage, at 4.2 GW, came in second. 

7.) Sodium-ion battery manufacturer Natron Energy will build a $1.4 bnNorth Carolina factory that can produce 24 GW of its lower cost and relatively stable sodium ion batteries. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Hydrogen aviation start-up ZeroAvia and Dutch airline KLM planning on 2026 hydrogen powered demonstration flight with 80-seater plane using ZeroAvia’s powertrain with 2.4MW fuel cells.

2.) UK gas pipeline operator National Grid Transmission says results of a three-year project testing hydrogen/methane blends in existing gas pipeline system show “no major blockers to repurposing our network to transport hydrogen.”

3.) The US Department of Energy awards $5.4m grant to U.S. Steel, Molten Industries, and CPFD Software for construction of a pilot clean-steel project using H2 produced by pyrolysis in a direct-reduced iron furnace to create low-carbon steel.

4.) U.S. clean energy developer Intersect Power LLC to take delivery of 15.3 GWh of Tesla’s Megapack battery storage units in 2025 and 2026 for projects to be developed through 2030.

5.) SunRun and Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE) create a small DOE-supported vehicle to home virtual power plant in BG&E’s service territory using three Ford F-150 Lightings. Sunrun will network and oversee the F-150 Lightning deliveries of energy during weekday dispatch periods from June 1 to September 30, between 5 and 9 p.m. Revenues estimated at $800 per vehicle.

6.) Ford Motor’s electric division posts Q2 loss of $1.1 billion in the face of continued EV pricing pressure on EVs, and despite $400 million in year-over-year cost reductions.  Sales were only 26,000 units.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) The offshore Vineyard Wind 1 project off Massachusetts suffers significant damage, as one of its 13 MW GE Vernova blades fails during testing, with tons of debris subsequently washing up on Nantucket beaches – 15 miles away. U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement issues suspension order, stopping all construction and operations.

2.) Energy Information Administration data shows datacenters prime driver of new U.S. electric demand growth in commercial sector, but only a limited number of states affected, while others saw declining demand. Texas, and Virginia led the growth pack.

3.) South Korea’s Hanwha Energy planning on $1.45 bn, 200 MW AI datacenter in Texas that it will lease to an undisclosed “U.S. tech company.”

4.) U.S.-based sodium-ion battery maker Peak Energy secures $55m Series A fund raise to start full-scale production of its sodium battery technology. Peak plans to deploy sodium batteries to six customers participating in pilot programs as early as next year, with domestic, giga-scale battery factory to open in 2027.

5.) Starbucks and Mercedes Benz High-Powered Charging announce joint plan to deploy EV chargers at over 100 U.S.-based Starbucks. Phase 1 to include from four to ten 400 kW chargers at locations along west coast Interstate 5 – the north-south route from Canada to Mexico. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Dominion Energy subsidiary Virginia Electric & Power to acquire the 40,000 acre, 800 MW Kitty Hawk North Wind offshore wind lease for close to $160 million.

2.) Calpine signs a cost share agreement with U.S. DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations for full-scale carbon capture demonstration project intended to capture 95% of the CO2 emissions from two of the three turbines at the company’s Baytown Energy Facility.

3.) Amazon is ahead of schedule in cutting carbon emissions, and pressuring higher emitters in its supply chain to do the same. The company has a newly established website called Amazon Sustainability Exchange, offering case studies and playbooks to help.

4.) Tesla deploys 9,400 MWh of energy storage in Q2 2024, up 131% over Q1 previous quarter, and 157% over Q2 of 2023. To put Tesla number in perspective, the U.S. installed 24,000 MWh in all of 2023. The company’s pricing for its 1.9 MW/3.9 MWh Megapack plummeted 44% over the past 14 months.

5.) BP’s Annual Energy Outlook foresees oil demand peaking next year at 102 million barrels per day, w/carbon emissions also predicted to peak in the mid 2020s.

6.) Canary Media reports Rondo Energy’s thermal industrial heat batteries are now in six U.S. and European sites with end uses ranging from food and beverage processing to chemicals and cement production. Rondo’s tech uses resistance heating and brick blocks that can be heated with electricity to 1,500 degrees C. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Enhanced geothermal company Fervo announces 320 MW deal to supply energy to Southern California Edison from its 400 MW plant under development in Utah. First 90-MW by 2026 with remainder by 2028.

2.) Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) approves 2,800 MW Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind South Project being developed by Shell and EDF Renewables off NJ. BOEM also okays Construction and Operations plan of Iberdrola’s New England Wind 1 and 2 off MA, totaling 2,600 MW.

3.) German clean energy asset manager, Luxcara, signs supplier deal with China’s Mingyang Smart Energy for 16 x 18.5 MW capacity wind turbines up - the largest to date in the world - supporting its German North Sea Waterkant project.

4.) District energy company Vicinity Energy announces long-term renewal of partnership with Boston’s Emerson College, with Emerson converting 100% of its heating operations to Vicinity's carbon-free thermal energy solution, eSteam.™ Vicinity uses electric boilers powered by renewables, tied to existing network of steam pipes, electric substations, and transmission.

5.) Volkswagen to create JV with struggling EV OEM Rivian, pouring $1 billion into the company with up to $4 billion added through 2026 if certain targets are met. $3 billion will be direct investment, with remaining $2 billion tied to the JV and background intellectual property.

6.) Rhode Island passes Energy Storage Systems Act, setting energy storage procurement goals and requiring state electric utility to develop a tariff valuing services provided by storage resource. 90 MW of storage to be installed through 2026; 195 MW through 2028; and 600 MW by 2033.

7.) China’s state-owned power generation enterprise Datang Group commissions a 50 MW/100 MWh sodium-ion battery energy storage, making it the world’s largest to date.

8.) Construction begins on gigawatt-scale green hydrogen/ammonia project in northern China, with estimated 1,000 MW of alkaline electrolyzers to be fueled by 1,250 MW of new wind power and 1,150 MW of solar, at a cost of $US 2.6 bn Project to yield 90,000 tons of green hydrogen annually, used to make 500,000 tons of green ammonia.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) California Energy Commission approves almost $27 million in fundingfor three long-duration energy storage projects with minimum 100-kW electrochemical or thermal battery resource of at least 24 hours of duration.

2.) New York to provide $5 million for long-duration projects yielding up to 10 hours of energy.

3.) Central Hudson Gas & Electric issues RFP for at least 10 MW of grid-connected energy storage systems.

4.) Q1 2024 sees record numbers for U.S. battery energy storage, at 993MW/2,952MWh across all market segments, up 84% Q1 2023 in megawatts, and 89% in megawatt-hours. Residential at 250 MW, with only 32 MW of that in CA.

5.)vNew York’s 942 MW Sunrise Wind offshore project receives OK of construction and operations plan from Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, clearing way for construction. Expected commissioning in 2026. 

6.)vDepartment of Energy to provide $900 million of funding from Bipartisan Infrastructure Act to support deployment of light-water small modular reactors.

7.) Congress passes nuclear bill known as the “ADVANCE Act,” directing Nuclear Regulatory Commission to accelerate its new nuclear technology licensing process. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Volvo announces world’s first EV battery passport for its soon-to-be-produced EX90 SUV. Passport will track the origins of raw materials, components, recycled content and carbon footprint of the vehicles. Beginning 2027 all EVs sold in the EU will need similar passports. 

2.) Volvo Trucks North America and Volvo Financial Services launch Truck-as-a-Service business model called Volvo on Demand, so customers can utilize electric trucks without upfront investments. Service will start with 25 Class 8 Volvo VNR Electric trucks, with customers enrolling for periods as short as 12 months.

3.) Chinese state-owned Dongfeng Electric Corporation has installed an 18MW offshore wind turbine – the world’s largest - with a 260-metre rotor diameter.

4.) $861 mn, 73-acre South Brooklyn Marine Terminal breaks ground, supporting 810 MW 54-turbine Empire Wind project 15 miles off Long Island.

5.) Google inks 115 MW deal with NV Energy to buy enhanced geothermal energy for Nevada data centers.

6.) Project developer will be Fervo Energy, with delivery in estimated six years.

7.) Storage company Highview Power secures $383m investment for first commercial-scale liquid air energy storage plant in Manchester, UK. Project will offer 50MWs for up to six hours. Plant commissioning set for early 2026. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Electric Power Research Institute report says datacenters could use as much as 9% of total U.S. electricity by 2030– driven by a surge in AI and large language programming models; Internet queries w/AI that use about 10Xthe juice of traditional Google search.

2.) Oakland California’s will be first major U.S. school district in the U.S. to go all electric with buses. Third party provider Zum will own and operate a total of 74 electric buses and operate bi-directional chargers capable of delivering 2,100 MWh of energy back to utility PG&E, through AI-enabled platform.

3.) Colorado utility Xcel Energy to work with V2G company Fermata Energy, City of Boulder, nonprofit Colorado CarShare and Boulder Housing Partners to developsmall but “transformational” V2X bidirectional electric vehicle charging pilot. Project will deploy four 20 kW Level 2 chargers and six Nissan Leafs.

4.) Chinese EV battery maker Gotion unveils all-solid-state battery w/plans to start "small-quantity production" by 2027. These batteries should take a vehicle about 600,000 miles over its lifetime. Gotion also launched next-gen Stellary batteries supporting 375 miles of driving range in 10 minutes of charging. Meanwhile Geely and BYD both planning on plug-in hybrids offering 1,200 miles of range on combined single gas tank and electric charge.

5.) CAISO board approves $6.1 billion plan to increase transmission, w/26 new projects to help add 85,000 megawatts of renewable capacity by 2035. CAISO also greenlit project to tie 550-mile SunZia line into the CA grid; SunZia carries 3,000 MW of wind power from NM to AZ, where a substation will route some to CA.